Hurricane Central
By weather.com meteorologists
less than an hour ago
At a Glance
- Hurricane Beryl is located a few hundred miles east of the Caribbean.
- Beryl is now a Category 4 hurricane and expected to reach the Windward Islands Monday.
- After that, its future in the rest of the Caribbean Sea is uncertain later this week.
- It could pose a threat to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
- There are two other systems we're watching in a busy early-season pattern.
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Hurricane Beryl is a category 4 major hurricane and a potentially devastating threat to the Windward Islands, but then faces an uncertain future in the Caribbean Sea as we also track two other systems in a busy pattern for this early in the season.
Current status: Beryl is centered about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands. It is moving quickly westward over the open waters of the central Atlantic Ocean. Beryl rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane Sunday after first becoming a tropical depression on Friday, tropical storm early Saturday morning and first hurricane of the season Saturday afternoon.
Beryl is the easternmost hurricane and "major hurricane" (Category 3+) to form in the tropical Atlantic during the month of June.
Windward Islands danger: The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shown below expects Beryl to strike the Windward Islands early Monday.
Beryl could be the strongest hurricane strike on the southern Windward Islands since Hurricane Ivan in 2004.
(MORE: What The Forecast Cone Means, And Doesn't)
Watches, warnings and impacts: Hurricane warnings continue for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada and Tobago.
Preparations should be rushed to completion in the hurricane-warned areas.
A narrow corridor of devastating wind damage is possible where Beryl's tiny eyewall moves over one or multiple of these islands as it enters the Caribbean early Monday.
Life-threatening storm surge and rainfall flooding is also expected in these areas through Monday.
Beryl's uncertain Caribbean future: Beryl will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea later Monday.
We then expect it to take a general west-northwest track in the Caribbean Sea through the Fourth of July week.
Beryl could eventually pose a danger to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula later this week. However, there's uncertainty in that exact track, as shown in the model forecast track map below.
One other uncertainty is how much wind shear Beryl will face in the Caribbean Sea. Typically this time of year, Caribbean wind shear is strong enough to weaken or completely fizzle tropical systems approaching from the east. However, model forecasts have hinted that wind shear could be lower than usual, which could allow Beryl to maintain its hurricane intensity longer in the western Caribbean Sea later this week.
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The bottom line: It's too soon to determine exactly what kind of shape Beryl will be in when it gets to the western half of the Caribbean Sea later this week. All interests around the Caribbean Sea should monitor the forecast of Beryl closely over the next several days.
It's also too soon to tell if Beryl will eventually threaten any part of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Again, check back with us at weather.com for forecast updates in the coming days.
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That's not all we're watching: There are two other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Basin, as depicted in the map below.
One system in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, Invest 96L, has a high chance of development this week. It will remain over the open ocean until nearing the Windward Islands around the middle of this week, just a couple of days after Beryl's devastating strike.
The other system near Mexico, Invest 94L, has a high chance of becoming a short-lived tropical system over the Bay of Campeche before it glides into eastern Mexico Monday.
(MORE: What Is An Invest?)
Heavy rain threat: Regardless of development, Invest 94L could dump locally heavy rainfall over southern and eastern Mexico. Local flash flooding and landslides are possible, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Some increased swells, rip currents and coastal flooding are also possible along parts of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast into at least early Monday.
(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
Check back with us at weather.com for updates to this forecast as the details become clearer in the days ahead.
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